Official MetService observations at Wellington International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 16°C mid-afternoon, under mild northerly winds and partial cloud cover that limited solar heating and prevented further intensification. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, which projected autumnal highs near the historical May average of 14–15°C amid neutral ENSO conditions lacking unusual warming drivers. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects real-time hourly data logs showing sustained sub-17°C readings through evening, embodying the wisdom of crowds in aggregating verified meteorological evidence. A realistic challenge would require rare post-finalization data revision by monitoring agencies, though protocols deem this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 1?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$112,287 Vol.
$112,287 Vol.
May 1, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$112,287 Vol.
$112,287 Vol.
May 1, 2026
9°C or below
$3,029 Vol.
No
10°C
$318 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,694 Vol.
No
12°C
$7,115 Vol.
No
13°C
$8,135 Vol.
No
14°C
$16,802 Vol.
No
15°C
$7,394 Vol.
No
16°C
$25,979 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$22,579 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,600 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$8,641 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official MetService observations at Wellington International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 16°C mid-afternoon, under mild northerly winds and partial cloud cover that limited solar heating and prevented further intensification. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, which projected autumnal highs near the historical May average of 14–15°C amid neutral ENSO conditions lacking unusual warming drivers. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects real-time hourly data logs showing sustained sub-17°C readings through evening, embodying the wisdom of crowds in aggregating verified meteorological evidence. A realistic challenge would require rare post-finalization data revision by monitoring agencies, though protocols deem this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$112,287End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official MetService observations at Wellington International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 16°C mid-afternoon, under mild northerly winds and partial cloud cover that limited solar heating and prevented further intensification. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, which projected autumnal highs near the historical May average of 14–15°C amid neutral ENSO conditions lacking unusual warming drivers. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects real-time hourly data logs showing sustained sub-17°C readings through evening, embodying the wisdom of crowds in aggregating verified meteorological evidence. A realistic challenge would require rare post-finalization data revision by monitoring agencies, though protocols deem this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$112,287End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official MetService observations at Wellington International Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, reached exactly 16°C mid-afternoon, under mild northerly winds and partial cloud cover that limited solar heating and prevented further intensification. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, which projected autumnal highs near the historical May average of 14–15°C amid neutral ENSO conditions lacking unusual warming drivers. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects real-time hourly data logs showing sustained sub-17°C readings through evening, embodying the wisdom of crowds in aggregating verified meteorological evidence. A realistic challenge would require rare post-finalization data revision by monitoring agencies, though protocols deem this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions