Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Randy Feenstra pursued the governorship, yet the June 2 Republican primary produced an unopposed nominee in Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader backed by party figures. Democratic voters selected former state representative Dave Dawson from a three-candidate field, though the party faces structural challenges in this rural northwest Iowa area. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, with shifts possible only under an unusually favorable national environment or significant candidate-specific developments before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,204 Vol.
$11,204 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$11,204 Vol.
$11,204 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$4,946 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$6,258 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Randy Feenstra pursued the governorship, yet the June 2 Republican primary produced an unopposed nominee in Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader backed by party figures. Democratic voters selected former state representative Dave Dawson from a three-candidate field, though the party faces structural challenges in this rural northwest Iowa area. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, with shifts possible only under an unusually favorable national environment or significant candidate-specific developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$11,204Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Randy Feenstra pursued the governorship, yet the June 2 Republican primary produced an unopposed nominee in Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader backed by party figures. Democratic voters selected former state representative Dave Dawson from a three-candidate field, though the party faces structural challenges in this rural northwest Iowa area. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, with shifts possible only under an unusually favorable national environment or significant candidate-specific developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,204Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index and double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The seat opened after incumbent Randy Feenstra pursued the governorship, yet the June 2 Republican primary produced an unopposed nominee in Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader backed by party figures. Democratic voters selected former state representative Dave Dawson from a three-candidate field, though the party faces structural challenges in this rural northwest Iowa area. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, with shifts possible only under an unusually favorable national environment or significant candidate-specific developments before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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