Iowa’s 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The open seat created by Randy Feenstra’s retirement to run for governor has not altered the district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index or its pattern of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, emerged from a low-turnout primary. An independent candidate adds minor ballot presence but little expected impact. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural lean and limited competitive indicators, though a sharp national shift or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$33,770 Vol.
$33,770 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$33,770 Vol.
$33,770 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$21,364 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$12,406 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The open seat created by Randy Feenstra’s retirement to run for governor has not altered the district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index or its pattern of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, emerged from a low-turnout primary. An independent candidate adds minor ballot presence but little expected impact. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural lean and limited competitive indicators, though a sharp national shift or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$33,770End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The open seat created by Randy Feenstra’s retirement to run for governor has not altered the district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index or its pattern of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, emerged from a low-turnout primary. An independent candidate adds minor ballot presence but little expected impact. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural lean and limited competitive indicators, though a sharp national shift or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,770End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The open seat created by Randy Feenstra’s retirement to run for governor has not altered the district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index or its pattern of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, emerged from a low-turnout primary. An independent candidate adds minor ballot presence but little expected impact. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural lean and limited competitive indicators, though a sharp national shift or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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