**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 18, 2026, centers on 26°C as the clear frontrunner (81% implied probability), followed by 25°C (19%), reflecting tight clustering around typical June overnight minima.** Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory show a daily range of 26–29°C with 75–95% humidity and showers, while international models converge on an overnight low near 25–26°C (79–79°F). Persistent cloud cover and scattered rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, a common pattern during the East Asian summer monsoon when southerly flow advects warm, moist air. June climatology places average overnight lows at 25–26°C, and the seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures has not altered this short-term baseline. No significant cold-air intrusions or clear-sky radiative events have emerged in recent model runs to push the minimum lower. High relative humidity (often >85%) further suppresses temperature drops by reducing the diurnal range. With resolution imminent and model agreement strong, traders have priced the outcome near the historical and forecast central tendency, leaving limited room for outcomes outside 25–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18?
24°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
$78,018 Vol.
$78,018 Vol.
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
$78,018 Vol.
$78,018 Vol.
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 18, 2026, centers on 26°C as the clear frontrunner (81% implied probability), followed by 25°C (19%), reflecting tight clustering around typical June overnight minima.** Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory show a daily range of 26–29°C with 75–95% humidity and showers, while international models converge on an overnight low near 25–26°C (79–79°F). Persistent cloud cover and scattered rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling, a common pattern during the East Asian summer monsoon when southerly flow advects warm, moist air. June climatology places average overnight lows at 25–26°C, and the seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures has not altered this short-term baseline. No significant cold-air intrusions or clear-sky radiative events have emerged in recent model runs to push the minimum lower. High relative humidity (often >85%) further suppresses temperature drops by reducing the diurnal range. With resolution imminent and model agreement strong, traders have priced the outcome near the historical and forecast central tendency, leaving limited room for outcomes outside 25–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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