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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

Ended: May 26

Aug 14

Aug 15

Ended: May 26

Aug 14

Aug 15

29°C 100.0%

20°C or below <1%

21°C <1%

22°C <1%

Polymarket

$53,052 Vol.

29°C 100.0%

20°C or below <1%

21°C <1%

22°C <1%

Polymarket

$53,052 Vol.

20°C or below

$897 Vol.

No

21°C

$947 Vol.

No

22°C

$964 Vol.

No

23°C

$1,115 Vol.

No

24°C

$905 Vol.

No

25°C

$5,257 Vol.

No

26°C

$6,907 Vol.

No

27°C

$6,818 Vol.

No

28°C

$8,560 Vol.

No

29°C

$15,760 Vol.

Yes

30°C or higher

$4,920 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent subtropical ridging combined with light southerly flow has suppressed overnight radiative cooling across Hong Kong, producing Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble model consensus for a minimum temperature of 29°C on May 26. This atmospheric setup maintains elevated nighttime readings typical of late-spring conditions in the region, where average lows often range from 25–28°C. Traders have priced the 29°C outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting the limited scope for significant deviation under current steering patterns and moisture profiles. A rapid increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly winds, or localized rainfall could enhance cooling and shift the recorded low, though such changes appear unlikely before final verification.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,052
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent subtropical ridging combined with light southerly flow has suppressed overnight radiative cooling across Hong Kong, producing Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble model consensus for a minimum temperature of 29°C on May 26. This atmospheric setup maintains elevated nighttime readings typical of late-spring conditions in the region, where average lows often range from 25–28°C. Traders have priced the 29°C outcome at 100% implied probability, reflecting the limited scope for significant deviation under current steering patterns and moisture profiles. A rapid increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly winds, or localized rainfall could enhance cooling and shift the recorded low, though such changes appear unlikely before final verification.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,052
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C" at 100%, followed by "20°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?" has generated $53.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?" is "29°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.