National Weather Service and private model consensus currently project a high near 101°F for Austin on August 15 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, producing heat indices near 109°F. This aligns with mid-August climatology when average daily highs peak near 99°F and recent observations show consecutive days in the upper 90s to low 100s. Limited cloud cover or moisture from weak southeasterly flow supports modest warming potential, while the absence of stronger upper-level ridging or tropical influences keeps extreme outliers (104°F+) at low market-implied odds. Updated NWS guidance tomorrow morning represents the key data point likely to refine resolution probabilities within the 100–103°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 15?
100-101°F 52%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 16%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
16%
100-101°F
52%
102-103°F
26%
104-105°F
5%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 52%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 16%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
91°F or below
$33 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$86 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$161 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$547 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$339 Vol.
16%
100-101°F
$718 Vol.
52%
102-103°F
$95 Vol.
26%
104-105°F
$91 Vol.
5%
106-107°F
$57 Vol.
2%
108-109°F
$161 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$330 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and private model consensus currently project a high near 101°F for Austin on August 15 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, producing heat indices near 109°F. This aligns with mid-August climatology when average daily highs peak near 99°F and recent observations show consecutive days in the upper 90s to low 100s. Limited cloud cover or moisture from weak southeasterly flow supports modest warming potential, while the absence of stronger upper-level ridging or tropical influences keeps extreme outliers (104°F+) at low market-implied odds. Updated NWS guidance tomorrow morning represents the key data point likely to refine resolution probabilities within the 100–103°F range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,619End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and private model consensus currently project a high near 101°F for Austin on August 15 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, producing heat indices near 109°F. This aligns with mid-August climatology when average daily highs peak near 99°F and recent observations show consecutive days in the upper 90s to low 100s. Limited cloud cover or moisture from weak southeasterly flow supports modest warming potential, while the absence of stronger upper-level ridging or tropical influences keeps extreme outliers (104°F+) at low market-implied odds. Updated NWS guidance tomorrow morning represents the key data point likely to refine resolution probabilities within the 100–103°F range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,619End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service and private model consensus currently project a high near 101°F for Austin on August 15 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, producing heat indices near 109°F. This aligns with mid-August climatology when average daily highs peak near 99°F and recent observations show consecutive days in the upper 90s to low 100s. Limited cloud cover or moisture from weak southeasterly flow supports modest warming potential, while the absence of stronger upper-level ridging or tropical influences keeps extreme outliers (104°F+) at low market-implied odds. Updated NWS guidance tomorrow morning represents the key data point likely to refine resolution probabilities within the 100–103°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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