Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather converge on a high near 101–102°F for Dallas on August 15, aligning with the market’s strong 49% weighting on the 100–101°F bin. Mid-August climatology in North Texas features peak seasonal heating under southerly flow, with typical highs near 100°F and heat indices elevated by humidity, though isolated cloud cover or brief showers could trim peak readings into the upper 90s. Recent model runs show limited spread, supporting the combined 92% probability on 98–103°F outcomes, while the low odds on extremes above 104°F reflect the low likelihood of a strong ridge amplifying temperatures beyond historical analogs for the date. Updated NHC and local guidance through the 15th will refine these probabilities ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 15?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 15?
100-101°F 49%
98-99°F 28%
102-103°F 16%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
93°F or below
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
28%
100-101°F
49%
102-103°F
16%
104-105°F
5%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 49%
98-99°F 28%
102-103°F 16%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
93°F or below
$93 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$151 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$280 Vol.
2%
98-99°F
$257 Vol.
28%
100-101°F
$3,153 Vol.
49%
102-103°F
$201 Vol.
16%
104-105°F
$195 Vol.
5%
106-107°F
$25 Vol.
1%
108-109°F
$70 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$21 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather converge on a high near 101–102°F for Dallas on August 15, aligning with the market’s strong 49% weighting on the 100–101°F bin. Mid-August climatology in North Texas features peak seasonal heating under southerly flow, with typical highs near 100°F and heat indices elevated by humidity, though isolated cloud cover or brief showers could trim peak readings into the upper 90s. Recent model runs show limited spread, supporting the combined 92% probability on 98–103°F outcomes, while the low odds on extremes above 104°F reflect the low likelihood of a strong ridge amplifying temperatures beyond historical analogs for the date. Updated NHC and local guidance through the 15th will refine these probabilities ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,632End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather converge on a high near 101–102°F for Dallas on August 15, aligning with the market’s strong 49% weighting on the 100–101°F bin. Mid-August climatology in North Texas features peak seasonal heating under southerly flow, with typical highs near 100°F and heat indices elevated by humidity, though isolated cloud cover or brief showers could trim peak readings into the upper 90s. Recent model runs show limited spread, supporting the combined 92% probability on 98–103°F outcomes, while the low odds on extremes above 104°F reflect the low likelihood of a strong ridge amplifying temperatures beyond historical analogs for the date. Updated NHC and local guidance through the 15th will refine these probabilities ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,632End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather converge on a high near 101–102°F for Dallas on August 15, aligning with the market’s strong 49% weighting on the 100–101°F bin. Mid-August climatology in North Texas features peak seasonal heating under southerly flow, with typical highs near 100°F and heat indices elevated by humidity, though isolated cloud cover or brief showers could trim peak readings into the upper 90s. Recent model runs show limited spread, supporting the combined 92% probability on 98–103°F outcomes, while the low odds on extremes above 104°F reflect the low likelihood of a strong ridge amplifying temperatures beyond historical analogs for the date. Updated NHC and local guidance through the 15th will refine these probabilities ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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