Recent model consensus from agencies like the National Meteorological Service points to afternoon convection and scattered showers moderating peak heating in Mexico City's high-altitude subtropical highland climate on August 15. This setup favors daily maxima near 26–27 °C, aligning with historical August averages of 24–25 °C and the tight 39 % / 37.5 % market split between those outcomes. Cloud cover timing, soil moisture from prior days' rainfall, and subtle steering by easterly waves create the narrow uncertainty band, while stronger insolation or delayed storms could push readings higher and lighter precipitation lower. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 15?
26°C 41%
27°C 37%
25°C 11%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
11%
26°C
41%
27°C
37%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 41%
27°C 37%
25°C 11%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$127 Vol.
2%
24°C
$58 Vol.
5%
25°C
$248 Vol.
11%
26°C
$193 Vol.
41%
27°C
$726 Vol.
37%
28°C
$77 Vol.
7%
29°C
$226 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the National Meteorological Service points to afternoon convection and scattered showers moderating peak heating in Mexico City's high-altitude subtropical highland climate on August 15. This setup favors daily maxima near 26–27 °C, aligning with historical August averages of 24–25 °C and the tight 39 % / 37.5 % market split between those outcomes. Cloud cover timing, soil moisture from prior days' rainfall, and subtle steering by easterly waves create the narrow uncertainty band, while stronger insolation or delayed storms could push readings higher and lighter precipitation lower. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,220End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the National Meteorological Service points to afternoon convection and scattered showers moderating peak heating in Mexico City's high-altitude subtropical highland climate on August 15. This setup favors daily maxima near 26–27 °C, aligning with historical August averages of 24–25 °C and the tight 39 % / 37.5 % market split between those outcomes. Cloud cover timing, soil moisture from prior days' rainfall, and subtle steering by easterly waves create the narrow uncertainty band, while stronger insolation or delayed storms could push readings higher and lighter precipitation lower. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,220End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the National Meteorological Service points to afternoon convection and scattered showers moderating peak heating in Mexico City's high-altitude subtropical highland climate on August 15. This setup favors daily maxima near 26–27 °C, aligning with historical August averages of 24–25 °C and the tight 39 % / 37.5 % market split between those outcomes. Cloud cover timing, soil moisture from prior days' rainfall, and subtle steering by easterly waves create the narrow uncertainty band, while stronger insolation or delayed storms could push readings higher and lighter precipitation lower. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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