Recent forecasts from models and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to an overnight low near 13–14°C on August 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and widespread showers that limit radiational cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Official guidance lists a 13–15°C minimum range for the Valle de México under continued monsoon moisture, aligning with historical August norms of roughly 14°C lows. Trader focus on the 14°C and 15°C bins reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, while the 32% implied probability on 9°C or below captures tail risk from any unexpected clear-sky breakout or model underestimation of cooling. Updated runs and local observations through the evening will refine the exact minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
9°C or below 73%
10°C 45%
19°C or higher 43%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
73%
10°C
45%
11°C
22%
12°C
27%
13°C
28%
14°C
37%
15°C
39%
16°C
23%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
43%
9°C or below 73%
10°C 45%
19°C or higher 43%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
$15 Vol.
73%
10°C
$15 Vol.
45%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
37%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$15 Vol.
8%
18°C
$15 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to an overnight low near 13–14°C on August 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and widespread showers that limit radiational cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Official guidance lists a 13–15°C minimum range for the Valle de México under continued monsoon moisture, aligning with historical August norms of roughly 14°C lows. Trader focus on the 14°C and 15°C bins reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, while the 32% implied probability on 9°C or below captures tail risk from any unexpected clear-sky breakout or model underestimation of cooling. Updated runs and local observations through the evening will refine the exact minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to an overnight low near 13–14°C on August 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and widespread showers that limit radiational cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Official guidance lists a 13–15°C minimum range for the Valle de México under continued monsoon moisture, aligning with historical August norms of roughly 14°C lows. Trader focus on the 14°C and 15°C bins reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, while the 32% implied probability on 9°C or below captures tail risk from any unexpected clear-sky breakout or model underestimation of cooling. Updated runs and local observations through the evening will refine the exact minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to an overnight low near 13–14°C on August 23, supported by persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and widespread showers that limit radiational cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Official guidance lists a 13–15°C minimum range for the Valle de México under continued monsoon moisture, aligning with historical August norms of roughly 14°C lows. Trader focus on the 14°C and 15°C bins reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, while the 32% implied probability on 9°C or below captures tail risk from any unexpected clear-sky breakout or model underestimation of cooling. Updated runs and local observations through the evening will refine the exact minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions