**Current forecast models for Mexico City on August 23 point to a maximum temperature near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s highland location produces consistently moderate highs even in late summer, with August climatology showing average daily maxima of 23–24°C and a narrow range rarely exceeding 26°C or falling below 21°C. Ongoing rainy-season patterns, including afternoon cloud build-up and potential showers, further cap daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and extended-range guidance shows no strong warming or cooling signals, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers above 25°C or below 20°C. Traders appear to be pricing the typical late-August atmospheric conditions and the low likelihood of extreme deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
22°C 38%
23°C 26%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
8%
21°C
15%
22°C
38%
23°C
26%
24°C
14%
25°C
5%
26°C
5%
27°C
6%
28°C or higher
2%
22°C 38%
23°C 26%
21°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
18°C or below
$111 Vol.
1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
3%
20°C
$33 Vol.
8%
21°C
$1 Vol.
15%
22°C
$21 Vol.
38%
23°C
$18 Vol.
26%
24°C
$39 Vol.
14%
25°C
$29 Vol.
5%
26°C
$44 Vol.
5%
27°C
$54 Vol.
6%
28°C or higher
$100 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models for Mexico City on August 23 point to a maximum temperature near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s highland location produces consistently moderate highs even in late summer, with August climatology showing average daily maxima of 23–24°C and a narrow range rarely exceeding 26°C or falling below 21°C. Ongoing rainy-season patterns, including afternoon cloud build-up and potential showers, further cap daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and extended-range guidance shows no strong warming or cooling signals, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers above 25°C or below 20°C. Traders appear to be pricing the typical late-August atmospheric conditions and the low likelihood of extreme deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ET
Volume
$455End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models for Mexico City on August 23 point to a maximum temperature near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s highland location produces consistently moderate highs even in late summer, with August climatology showing average daily maxima of 23–24°C and a narrow range rarely exceeding 26°C or falling below 21°C. Ongoing rainy-season patterns, including afternoon cloud build-up and potential showers, further cap daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and extended-range guidance shows no strong warming or cooling signals, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers above 25°C or below 20°C. Traders appear to be pricing the typical late-August atmospheric conditions and the low likelihood of extreme deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$455End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models for Mexico City on August 23 point to a maximum temperature near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s highland location produces consistently moderate highs even in late summer, with August climatology showing average daily maxima of 23–24°C and a narrow range rarely exceeding 26°C or falling below 21°C. Ongoing rainy-season patterns, including afternoon cloud build-up and potential showers, further cap daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and extended-range guidance shows no strong warming or cooling signals, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers above 25°C or below 20°C. Traders appear to be pricing the typical late-August atmospheric conditions and the low likelihood of extreme deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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