National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station—the official source for New York City climate records—confirm the minimum temperature on May 1, 2026, reached 48-49°F, locking in trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as preliminary daily reports finalized yesterday. This positioning reflects a cool upper-level trough lingering from late April, which suppressed temperatures below the early-May climatological normal of 51°F amid light winds and partial cloud cover overnight, consistent with NOAA model guidance in the preceding 48 hours. Historical May 1 lows average around 50°F with variability from urban heat island effects; realistic challenges to resolution would require rare NWS data corrections for sensor anomalies, though final CLI summaries typically affirm initial readings. Traders await no major updates, as the market nears closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
48-49°F 100%
37°F or below <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$64,947 Vol.
$64,947 Vol.
May 1, 2026
37°F or below
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
Yes
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56°F or higher
No
48-49°F 100%
37°F or below <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$64,947 Vol.
$64,947 Vol.
May 1, 2026
37°F or below
$14,784 Vol.
No
38-39°F
$1,923 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$31,987 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$970 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$2,219 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$1,888 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$6,862 Vol.
Yes
50-51°F
$1,004 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$694 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$717 Vol.
No
56°F or higher
$1,899 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station—the official source for New York City climate records—confirm the minimum temperature on May 1, 2026, reached 48-49°F, locking in trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as preliminary daily reports finalized yesterday. This positioning reflects a cool upper-level trough lingering from late April, which suppressed temperatures below the early-May climatological normal of 51°F amid light winds and partial cloud cover overnight, consistent with NOAA model guidance in the preceding 48 hours. Historical May 1 lows average around 50°F with variability from urban heat island effects; realistic challenges to resolution would require rare NWS data corrections for sensor anomalies, though final CLI summaries typically affirm initial readings. Traders await no major updates, as the market nears closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$64,947End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station—the official source for New York City climate records—confirm the minimum temperature on May 1, 2026, reached 48-49°F, locking in trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as preliminary daily reports finalized yesterday. This positioning reflects a cool upper-level trough lingering from late April, which suppressed temperatures below the early-May climatological normal of 51°F amid light winds and partial cloud cover overnight, consistent with NOAA model guidance in the preceding 48 hours. Historical May 1 lows average around 50°F with variability from urban heat island effects; realistic challenges to resolution would require rare NWS data corrections for sensor anomalies, though final CLI summaries typically affirm initial readings. Traders await no major updates, as the market nears closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,947End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station—the official source for New York City climate records—confirm the minimum temperature on May 1, 2026, reached 48-49°F, locking in trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as preliminary daily reports finalized yesterday. This positioning reflects a cool upper-level trough lingering from late April, which suppressed temperatures below the early-May climatological normal of 51°F amid light winds and partial cloud cover overnight, consistent with NOAA model guidance in the preceding 48 hours. Historical May 1 lows average around 50°F with variability from urban heat island effects; realistic challenges to resolution would require rare NWS data corrections for sensor anomalies, though final CLI summaries typically affirm initial readings. Traders await no major updates, as the market nears closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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