**Marine layer persistence and typical August onshore flow position the overnight low in San Francisco near 58°F on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome (51.5% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service and NOAA guidance, along with multiple forecast models, project lows in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, light to moderate west-to-southwest winds, and continued marine influence that moderates temperatures overnight. This matches the historical average low of 56°F for the date and recent August 2026 observations showing nighttime minima stabilizing between 56–58°F. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range around these forecasts, with lower-probability bins (56-57°F at 28%, 60-61°F at 17%) capturing potential model spread or slight variations in station readings, while colder or warmer extremes remain unlikely absent an unexpected shift in the marine layer or wind pattern. The market resolves on the official minimum temperature recorded for the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
58-59°F 52%
50-51°F 41%
56-57°F 27%
60-61°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
12%
50-51°F
41%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
52%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
9%
58-59°F 52%
50-51°F 41%
56-57°F 27%
60-61°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
12%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
41%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
15%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
15%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$11 Vol.
52%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
14%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and typical August onshore flow position the overnight low in San Francisco near 58°F on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome (51.5% implied probability).**
Official National Weather Service and NOAA guidance, along with multiple forecast models, project lows in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, light to moderate west-to-southwest winds, and continued marine influence that moderates temperatures overnight. This matches the historical average low of 56°F for the date and recent August 2026 observations showing nighttime minima stabilizing between 56–58°F. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range around these forecasts, with lower-probability bins (56-57°F at 28%, 60-61°F at 17%) capturing potential model spread or slight variations in station readings, while colder or warmer extremes remain unlikely absent an unexpected shift in the marine layer or wind pattern. The market resolves on the official minimum temperature recorded for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and typical August onshore flow position the overnight low in San Francisco near 58°F on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome (51.5% implied probability).**
Official National Weather Service and NOAA guidance, along with multiple forecast models, project lows in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, light to moderate west-to-southwest winds, and continued marine influence that moderates temperatures overnight. This matches the historical average low of 56°F for the date and recent August 2026 observations showing nighttime minima stabilizing between 56–58°F. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range around these forecasts, with lower-probability bins (56-57°F at 28%, 60-61°F at 17%) capturing potential model spread or slight variations in station readings, while colder or warmer extremes remain unlikely absent an unexpected shift in the marine layer or wind pattern. The market resolves on the official minimum temperature recorded for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Marine layer persistence and typical August onshore flow position the overnight low in San Francisco near 58°F on August 25, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome (51.5% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service and NOAA guidance, along with multiple forecast models, project lows in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, light to moderate west-to-southwest winds, and continued marine influence that moderates temperatures overnight. This matches the historical average low of 56°F for the date and recent August 2026 observations showing nighttime minima stabilizing between 56–58°F. Trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range around these forecasts, with lower-probability bins (56-57°F at 28%, 60-61°F at 17%) capturing potential model spread or slight variations in station readings, while colder or warmer extremes remain unlikely absent an unexpected shift in the marine layer or wind pattern. The market resolves on the official minimum temperature recorded for the calendar day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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