Traders see the 56–59°F bins as nearly even money because official National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance show Seattle’s minimum temperature on August 25 hovering right at the boundary between those two outcomes. Late-summer marine-layer stratus and variable onshore flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while any breaks in cloud cover or slight wind shifts could add or subtract a degree or two. With the forecast window now less than 24 hours away, small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model cycles are the dominant near-term driver, keeping the two leading probabilities locked within 1 percentage point and leaving lower or higher bins as long-shot tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on August 25?
58-59°F 40%
56-57°F 37%
60-61°F 26%
52-53°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
37%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
1%
58-59°F 40%
56-57°F 37%
60-61°F 26%
52-53°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$11 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
16%
52-53°F
$5 Vol.
18%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
15%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
37%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
11%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$6 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 56–59°F bins as nearly even money because official National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance show Seattle’s minimum temperature on August 25 hovering right at the boundary between those two outcomes. Late-summer marine-layer stratus and variable onshore flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while any breaks in cloud cover or slight wind shifts could add or subtract a degree or two. With the forecast window now less than 24 hours away, small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model cycles are the dominant near-term driver, keeping the two leading probabilities locked within 1 percentage point and leaving lower or higher bins as long-shot tails.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 56–59°F bins as nearly even money because official National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance show Seattle’s minimum temperature on August 25 hovering right at the boundary between those two outcomes. Late-summer marine-layer stratus and variable onshore flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while any breaks in cloud cover or slight wind shifts could add or subtract a degree or two. With the forecast window now less than 24 hours away, small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model cycles are the dominant near-term driver, keeping the two leading probabilities locked within 1 percentage point and leaving lower or higher bins as long-shot tails.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 56–59°F bins as nearly even money because official National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance show Seattle’s minimum temperature on August 25 hovering right at the boundary between those two outcomes. Late-summer marine-layer stratus and variable onshore flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while any breaks in cloud cover or slight wind shifts could add or subtract a degree or two. With the forecast window now less than 24 hours away, small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model cycles are the dominant near-term driver, keeping the two leading probabilities locked within 1 percentage point and leaving lower or higher bins as long-shot tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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