Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on August 26 near 26–28°C under continued subtropical high influence, with light easterly winds, high humidity near 80%, and partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions sustain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer urban environments, where the heat island effect further moderates temperature drops. Market-implied odds favor 27°C or 26°C because recent runs show only modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind, with slight differences in expected cloud timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Historical August climatology places average lows near 25°C, but current persistence of warm advection keeps probabilities concentrated above that baseline ahead of any late-month frontal change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
27°C 48%
26°C 37%
28°C 16%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
12%
23°C
13%
24°C
7%
25°C
10%
26°C
37%
27°C
48%
28°C
16%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
13%
32°C or higher
11%
27°C 48%
26°C 37%
28°C 16%
30°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
12%
23°C
$5 Vol.
13%
24°C
$38 Vol.
7%
25°C
$13 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
37%
27°C
$41 Vol.
48%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C
$76 Vol.
9%
30°C
$5 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
13%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on August 26 near 26–28°C under continued subtropical high influence, with light easterly winds, high humidity near 80%, and partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions sustain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer urban environments, where the heat island effect further moderates temperature drops. Market-implied odds favor 27°C or 26°C because recent runs show only modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind, with slight differences in expected cloud timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Historical August climatology places average lows near 25°C, but current persistence of warm advection keeps probabilities concentrated above that baseline ahead of any late-month frontal change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$183End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on August 26 near 26–28°C under continued subtropical high influence, with light easterly winds, high humidity near 80%, and partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions sustain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer urban environments, where the heat island effect further moderates temperature drops. Market-implied odds favor 27°C or 26°C because recent runs show only modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind, with slight differences in expected cloud timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Historical August climatology places average lows near 25°C, but current persistence of warm advection keeps probabilities concentrated above that baseline ahead of any late-month frontal change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$183End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on August 26 near 26–28°C under continued subtropical high influence, with light easterly winds, high humidity near 80%, and partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions sustain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer urban environments, where the heat island effect further moderates temperature drops. Market-implied odds favor 27°C or 26°C because recent runs show only modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind, with slight differences in expected cloud timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Historical August climatology places average lows near 25°C, but current persistence of warm advection keeps probabilities concentrated above that baseline ahead of any late-month frontal change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions