Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of INMET and Climatempo forecasts projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 16 at 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies with morning fog and no precipitation, following recent observations of 25–28°C highs on April 13–15 amid mild autumn conditions. This positioning stems from a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing rainfall and allowing solar heating, slightly above the April historical average of 25°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development—while Ventusky implies a cooler 25°C outlier. New 12z model updates overnight could shift odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 16?
28°C 30%
27°C 28%
29°C 25%
26°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
12%
27°C
28%
28°C
30%
29°C
25%
30°C
8%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 30%
27°C 28%
29°C 25%
26°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 avr. 2026
23°C or below
$96 Vol.
1%
24°C
$119 Vol.
2%
25°C
$110 Vol.
4%
26°C
$103 Vol.
12%
27°C
$228 Vol.
28%
28°C
$83 Vol.
30%
29°C
$365 Vol.
25%
30°C
$68 Vol.
8%
31°C
$52 Vol.
3%
32°C
$65 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$189 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of INMET and Climatempo forecasts projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 16 at 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies with morning fog and no precipitation, following recent observations of 25–28°C highs on April 13–15 amid mild autumn conditions. This positioning stems from a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing rainfall and allowing solar heating, slightly above the April historical average of 25°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development—while Ventusky implies a cooler 25°C outlier. New 12z model updates overnight could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,266Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of INMET and Climatempo forecasts projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 16 at 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies with morning fog and no precipitation, following recent observations of 25–28°C highs on April 13–15 amid mild autumn conditions. This positioning stems from a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing rainfall and allowing solar heating, slightly above the April historical average of 25°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development—while Ventusky implies a cooler 25°C outlier. New 12z model updates overnight could shift odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,266Date de fin
16 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of INMET and Climatempo forecasts projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 16 at 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies with morning fog and no precipitation, following recent observations of 25–28°C highs on April 13–15 amid mild autumn conditions. This positioning stems from a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing rainfall and allowing solar heating, slightly above the April historical average of 25°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in the city. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development—while Ventusky implies a cooler 25°C outlier. New 12z model updates overnight could shift odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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