Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17–19°C for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mild spring conditions after a recent cold front. Leading probabilities favor 18°C (25%) slightly over 17°C (24.5%) and 19°C (22%), reflecting subtle model divergences: ECMWF implies drier skies boosting peaks to 19°C via enhanced solar insolation, while GFS accounts for lingering clouds capping at 17°C amid southerly winds. Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate typically sees March highs averaging 16–18°C, but urban heat island effects and high-pressure ridging amplify variability; traders eye final CMA updates for resolution amid low ensemble spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
18°C 25%
19°C 23%
17°C 20%
20°C 19%
$15,190 Vol.
$15,190 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
10%
17°C
20%
18°C
25%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C or higher
9%
18°C 25%
19°C 23%
17°C 20%
20°C 19%
$15,190 Vol.
$15,190 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
10%
17°C
20%
18°C
25%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17–19°C for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 26, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on mild spring conditions after a recent cold front. Leading probabilities favor 18°C (25%) slightly over 17°C (24.5%) and 19°C (22%), reflecting subtle model divergences: ECMWF implies drier skies boosting peaks to 19°C via enhanced solar insolation, while GFS accounts for lingering clouds capping at 17°C amid southerly winds. Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate typically sees March highs averaging 16–18°C, but urban heat island effects and high-pressure ridging amplify variability; traders eye final CMA updates for resolution amid low ensemble spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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