NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no known asteroids on collision courses capable of a 5 kt impact through the end of 2026, with all Sentry-listed objects in that window under 10 m and discovered only hours before entry. Small airbursts and meteorites occur regularly, but calibrated energy estimates place most well below the 5 kt threshold, consistent with historical rates of roughly one such event per several years globally. Recent 2026 close approaches, including multiple airplane-sized objects passing millions of miles away, and refined orbital data have further reduced any residual risk. Traders therefore assign the 26.5% Yes probability mainly to the chance of an undetected small object or statistical fluctuation in the final months of the year.