No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$311,304 Vol.
$311,304 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$311,304 Vol.
$311,304 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,304Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,304Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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