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Politica·Elezioni Globali

Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia

Market icon
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia

Paloma Valencia 41.9%

Iván Cepeda Castro 38%

Abelardo de la Espriella 19%

Claudia López (IND) <1%

Polymarket

$20,245,987 Vol.

Paloma Valencia 41.9%

Iván Cepeda Castro 38%

Abelardo de la Espriella 19%

Claudia López (IND) <1%

Polymarket

$20,245,987 Vol.

Paloma Valencia vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Paloma Valencia

$652,200 Vol.

42%

Iván Cepeda Castro vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Iván Cepeda Castro

$511,902 Vol.

38%

Abelardo de la Espriella vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Abelardo de la Espriella

$669,567 Vol.

19%

Claudia López vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Claudia López (IND)

$668,369 Vol.

<1%

Sergio Fajardo vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,363,104 Vol.

<1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,305,074 Vol.

<1%

Juan Daniel Oviedo vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$820,480 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$114,010 Vol.

<1%

Vicky Dávila vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,456,219 Vol.

<1%

Gustavo Bolívar vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$3,073,376 Vol.

<1%

Juan Manuel Galán vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$631,876 Vol.

<1%

Germán Vargas Lleras vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,194,488 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Cardenas vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,355,365 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Quintero vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Daniel Quintero

$569,658 Vol.

<1%

Roy Barreras vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Roy Barreras

$775,261 Vol.

<1%

Enrique Peñalosa vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,246,346 Vol.

<1%

Juan Carlos Pinzón vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$392,191 Vol.

<1%

David Luna Sánchez vincerà le elezioni presidenziali colombiane del 2026? icon

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,421,898 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices a razor-thin lead for moderate-leaning Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round or runoff, closely trailed by right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (41.9%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (37.5%), underscoring a fragmented, polarized race with no clear frontrunner. March 8 legislative primaries and congressional elections consolidated the Historic Pact behind Cepeda with a plurality of seats but no majority, while Valencia's strong Democratic Center primary performance propelled her surge, though her vote splits with independent Abelardo de la Espriella (18.5%). Recent polls like AtlasIntel's April fieldwork show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 39% amid Petro's lame-duck unpopularity, economic strains, and security woes, yet markets reflect moderate appeal and runoff uncertainties; separation could stem from endorsements, debates, or scandals before the vote.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$20,245,987
Data di fine
21 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices a razor-thin lead for moderate-leaning Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round or runoff, closely trailed by right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (41.9%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (37.5%), underscoring a fragmented, polarized race with no clear frontrunner. March 8 legislative primaries and congressional elections consolidated the Historic Pact behind Cepeda with a plurality of seats but no majority, while Valencia's strong Democratic Center primary performance propelled her surge, though her vote splits with independent Abelardo de la Espriella (18.5%). Recent polls like AtlasIntel's April fieldwork show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 39% amid Petro's lame-duck unpopularity, economic strains, and security woes, yet markets reflect moderate appeal and runoff uncertainties; separation could stem from endorsements, debates, or scandals before the vote.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$20,245,987
Data di fine
21 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Domande frequenti

"Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 19 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Paloma Valencia" a 42%, seguito da "Iván Cepeda Castro" a 38%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 42¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 42% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia" ha generato $20.2 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jul 29, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia", esplora i 19 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia" è "Paloma Valencia" a 42%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 42% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Iván Cepeda Castro" a 38%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni presidenziali in Colombia" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.