Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate a cool, mostly cloudy night on August 29 with light showers possible under southwesterly flow, positioning the overnight minimum near 16°C at the official Paris station. This aligns with the market’s heaviest trading around 16°C (43.5% implied probability) and 17°C (25.5%), as current guidance clusters lows in the 15–17°C range—above the long-term August 29 average of 13.5°C but consistent with the cooler late-month pattern observed since mid-August. Key variables include the strength of cloud cover, which limits radiational cooling, and any timing shift in precipitation that could alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final data traders are weighting.