Trader consensus favors exactly two countries at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian regime targets early in April—such as over 200 infrastructure hits reported on April 4—alongside ongoing operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, including massive waves on April 8-9 that killed over 250 and recent drone strikes in southern areas like Nabatieh and Tyre as of April 15-16. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 7 has curbed direct escalations there, while Gaza operations paused post-ceasefire, limiting the count. Probabilities for three (23.5%) or more (14.5%) hinge on potential Syria or Yemen strikes amid Houthi attacks, but no new confirmations have emerged; Israel-Lebanon talks announced April 15 offer de-escalation potential yet face violations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 66%
3 26%
4개국 이상 15%
$104,822 거래량
$104,822 거래량
2026.04.30
2
66%
3
26%
4개국 이상
15%
2 66%
3 26%
4개국 이상 15%
$104,822 거래량
$104,822 거래량
2026.04.30
2
$26,307 거래량
66%
3
$30,902 거래량
26%
4개국 이상
$40,182 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly two countries at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian regime targets early in April—such as over 200 infrastructure hits reported on April 4—alongside ongoing operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, including massive waves on April 8-9 that killed over 250 and recent drone strikes in southern areas like Nabatieh and Tyre as of April 15-16. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 7 has curbed direct escalations there, while Gaza operations paused post-ceasefire, limiting the count. Probabilities for three (23.5%) or more (14.5%) hinge on potential Syria or Yemen strikes amid Houthi attacks, but no new confirmations have emerged; Israel-Lebanon talks announced April 15 offer de-escalation potential yet face violations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
거래량
$104,822종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly two countries at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian regime targets early in April—such as over 200 infrastructure hits reported on April 4—alongside ongoing operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, including massive waves on April 8-9 that killed over 250 and recent drone strikes in southern areas like Nabatieh and Tyre as of April 15-16. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 7 has curbed direct escalations there, while Gaza operations paused post-ceasefire, limiting the count. Probabilities for three (23.5%) or more (14.5%) hinge on potential Syria or Yemen strikes amid Houthi attacks, but no new confirmations have emerged; Israel-Lebanon talks announced April 15 offer de-escalation potential yet face violations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$104,822종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors exactly two countries at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian regime targets early in April—such as over 200 infrastructure hits reported on April 4—alongside ongoing operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, including massive waves on April 8-9 that killed over 250 and recent drone strikes in southern areas like Nabatieh and Tyre as of April 15-16. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran around April 7 has curbed direct escalations there, while Gaza operations paused post-ceasefire, limiting the count. Probabilities for three (23.5%) or more (14.5%) hinge on potential Syria or Yemen strikes amid Houthi attacks, but no new confirmations have emerged; Israel-Lebanon talks announced April 15 offer de-escalation potential yet face violations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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