Amid the 2026 Iran war, sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late February, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel, US bases in Iraq, and Saudi assets, anchoring trader consensus on confirmed actions securing Yes outcomes for leading targets like Iraq and Israel by April 30. In the past 48 hours, the US intensified its naval blockade of Iranian ports while Iran rejected a proposal to pause uranium enrichment for asset releases on April 13. Ongoing threats of "crushing retaliation" follow April 6 coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi attacks on Israel, as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks begin and speculated US airstrikes loom mid-April, heightening escalation risks before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$4,035,966 거래량
2026.04.30
이라크
100%
바레인
38%
카타르
19%
요르단
7%
오만
5%
레바논
4%
시리아
4%
아제르바이잔
4%
키프로스
3%
터키
3%
아프가니스탄
3%
폴란드
2%
파키스탄
2%
우크라이나
2%
예멘
2%
조지아
2%
아르메니아
1%
영국
1%
이탈리아
1%
인도
1%
독일
1%
프랑스
1%
스페인
1%
헝가리
1%
$4,035,966 거래량
이라크
$1,990,293 거래량
100%
바레인
$104,351 거래량
38%
카타르
$80,114 거래량
19%
요르단
$11,920 거래량
7%
오만
$63,747 거래량
5%
레바논
$42,074 거래량
4%
시리아
$12,372 거래량
4%
아제르바이잔
$38,204 거래량
4%
키프로스
$18,672 거래량
3%
터키
$19,292 거래량
3%
아프가니스탄
$1,729 거래량
3%
폴란드
$35,838 거래량
2%
파키스탄
$13,591 거래량
2%
우크라이나
$14,538 거래량
2%
예멘
$8,383 거래량
2%
조지아
$7,508 거래량
2%
아르메니아
$3,313 거래량
1%
영국
$25,115 거래량
1%
이탈리아
$1,353 거래량
1%
인도
$19,286 거래량
1%
독일
$18,316 거래량
1%
프랑스
$31,222 거래량
1%
스페인
$7,038 거래량
1%
헝가리
$14,579 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war, sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late February, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel, US bases in Iraq, and Saudi assets, anchoring trader consensus on confirmed actions securing Yes outcomes for leading targets like Iraq and Israel by April 30. In the past 48 hours, the US intensified its naval blockade of Iranian ports while Iran rejected a proposal to pause uranium enrichment for asset releases on April 13. Ongoing threats of "crushing retaliation" follow April 6 coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi attacks on Israel, as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks begin and speculated US airstrikes loom mid-April, heightening escalation risks before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
거래량
$4,035,966종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war, sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late February, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel, US bases in Iraq, and Saudi assets, anchoring trader consensus on confirmed actions securing Yes outcomes for leading targets like Iraq and Israel by April 30. In the past 48 hours, the US intensified its naval blockade of Iranian ports while Iran rejected a proposal to pause uranium enrichment for asset releases on April 13. Ongoing threats of "crushing retaliation" follow April 6 coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi attacks on Israel, as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks begin and speculated US airstrikes loom mid-April, heightening escalation risks before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$4,035,966종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
Amid the 2026 Iran war, sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late February, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel, US bases in Iraq, and Saudi assets, anchoring trader consensus on confirmed actions securing Yes outcomes for leading targets like Iraq and Israel by April 30. In the past 48 hours, the US intensified its naval blockade of Iranian ports while Iran rejected a proposal to pause uranium enrichment for asset releases on April 13. Ongoing threats of "crushing retaliation" follow April 6 coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi attacks on Israel, as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks begin and speculated US airstrikes loom mid-April, heightening escalation risks before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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