A tenuous two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced April 7 and set to expire April 21, holds amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—explicitly excluded from the truce—while US naval forces enforce a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, successfully redirecting ten vessels and halting Tehran's oil exports to impose severe economic pressure. Failed direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 stalled over Iran's nuclear program and navigation rights, but mediators like Pakistan are facilitating a second round, with a US draft proposal sent April 14 and White House officials expressing optimism for a deal. Iran reorganizes missile forces during the pause, warning of disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf if the blockade persists, as Israel-Lebanon preparatory negotiations proceed in Washington. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether mounting costs will yield de-escalation or prompt renewed airstrikes and missile barrages post-ceasefire.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$41,938,352 거래량
2026.05.15
4월 7일
87%
4월 15일
87%
4월 30일
89%
5월 15일
92%
6월 30일
96%
12월 31일
98%
$41,938,352 거래량
4월 7일
$15,121,715 거래량
87%
4월 15일
$8,920,838 거래량
87%
4월 30일
$3,820,684 거래량
89%
5월 15일
$3,404,205 거래량
92%
6월 30일
$2,826,656 거래량
96%
12월 31일
$2,682,798 거래량
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A tenuous two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced April 7 and set to expire April 21, holds amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—explicitly excluded from the truce—while US naval forces enforce a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, successfully redirecting ten vessels and halting Tehran's oil exports to impose severe economic pressure. Failed direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 stalled over Iran's nuclear program and navigation rights, but mediators like Pakistan are facilitating a second round, with a US draft proposal sent April 14 and White House officials expressing optimism for a deal. Iran reorganizes missile forces during the pause, warning of disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf if the blockade persists, as Israel-Lebanon preparatory negotiations proceed in Washington. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether mounting costs will yield de-escalation or prompt renewed airstrikes and missile barrages post-ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
마켓 개설일: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
거래량
$41,938,352종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A tenuous two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced April 7 and set to expire April 21, holds amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—explicitly excluded from the truce—while US naval forces enforce a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, successfully redirecting ten vessels and halting Tehran's oil exports to impose severe economic pressure. Failed direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 stalled over Iran's nuclear program and navigation rights, but mediators like Pakistan are facilitating a second round, with a US draft proposal sent April 14 and White House officials expressing optimism for a deal. Iran reorganizes missile forces during the pause, warning of disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf if the blockade persists, as Israel-Lebanon preparatory negotiations proceed in Washington. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether mounting costs will yield de-escalation or prompt renewed airstrikes and missile barrages post-ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
거래량
$41,938,352종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A tenuous two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced April 7 and set to expire April 21, holds amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—explicitly excluded from the truce—while US naval forces enforce a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, successfully redirecting ten vessels and halting Tehran's oil exports to impose severe economic pressure. Failed direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 stalled over Iran's nuclear program and navigation rights, but mediators like Pakistan are facilitating a second round, with a US draft proposal sent April 14 and White House officials expressing optimism for a deal. Iran reorganizes missile forces during the pause, warning of disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf if the blockade persists, as Israel-Lebanon preparatory negotiations proceed in Washington. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether mounting costs will yield de-escalation or prompt renewed airstrikes and missile barrages post-ceasefire.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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