Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy leads a competitive Republican primary field against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, per March 2026 polls showing Letlow at 27-29%, Cassidy at 20-23%, and high undecideds, with the partisan primary set for May 16 and potential runoff June 27. Louisiana's deep-red political landscape—where Republicans hold supermajorities, Trump won over 60% in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since 2008—drives trader consensus to 91% for a GOP victory, reinforced by a low-profile Democratic trio lacking fundraising or name recognition. Scenarios like a nominee scandal, health crisis, or unprecedented GOP turnout collapse could shift odds, though historical precedents favor the Republican hold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
92%
Democrat
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$2,762 거래량
92%
Democrat
$2,425 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy leads a competitive Republican primary field against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, per March 2026 polls showing Letlow at 27-29%, Cassidy at 20-23%, and high undecideds, with the partisan primary set for May 16 and potential runoff June 27. Louisiana's deep-red political landscape—where Republicans hold supermajorities, Trump won over 60% in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since 2008—drives trader consensus to 91% for a GOP victory, reinforced by a low-profile Democratic trio lacking fundraising or name recognition. Scenarios like a nominee scandal, health crisis, or unprecedented GOP turnout collapse could shift odds, though historical precedents favor the Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$5,187종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy leads a competitive Republican primary field against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, per March 2026 polls showing Letlow at 27-29%, Cassidy at 20-23%, and high undecideds, with the partisan primary set for May 16 and potential runoff June 27. Louisiana's deep-red political landscape—where Republicans hold supermajorities, Trump won over 60% in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since 2008—drives trader consensus to 91% for a GOP victory, reinforced by a low-profile Democratic trio lacking fundraising or name recognition. Scenarios like a nominee scandal, health crisis, or unprecedented GOP turnout collapse could shift odds, though historical precedents favor the Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$5,187종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy leads a competitive Republican primary field against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, per March 2026 polls showing Letlow at 27-29%, Cassidy at 20-23%, and high undecideds, with the partisan primary set for May 16 and potential runoff June 27. Louisiana's deep-red political landscape—where Republicans hold supermajorities, Trump won over 60% in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since 2008—drives trader consensus to 91% for a GOP victory, reinforced by a low-profile Democratic trio lacking fundraising or name recognition. Scenarios like a nominee scandal, health crisis, or unprecedented GOP turnout collapse could shift odds, though historical precedents favor the Republican hold.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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