Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트허리케인 시즌이 오기 전에 폭풍으로 명명되었나요?
허리케인 시즌이 오기 전에 폭풍으로 명명되었나요?
예
$332,023 거래량
$332,023 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$332,023 거래량
$332,023 거래량
2026.05.31
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
거래량
$332,023종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$332,023종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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