The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook, issued as of mid-April 2026, states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 7 days, reinforcing trader consensus at 96.4% for no hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or stronger) have formed before June 1 since 1851—coupled with current inhibiting conditions: sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, elevated vertical wind shear exceeding 20 knots, and pervasive dry mid-level air. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk forecasts predict a below-normal 2026 season amid transitioning weak La Niña patterns. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming or an early African easterly wave encountering low-shear conditions, with daily NHC updates through May providing key monitoring points.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$41,467 거래량
$41,467 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$41,467 거래량
$41,467 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook, issued as of mid-April 2026, states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 7 days, reinforcing trader consensus at 96.4% for no hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or stronger) have formed before June 1 since 1851—coupled with current inhibiting conditions: sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, elevated vertical wind shear exceeding 20 knots, and pervasive dry mid-level air. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk forecasts predict a below-normal 2026 season amid transitioning weak La Niña patterns. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming or an early African easterly wave encountering low-shear conditions, with daily NHC updates through May providing key monitoring points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$41,467종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook, issued as of mid-April 2026, states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 7 days, reinforcing trader consensus at 96.4% for no hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or stronger) have formed before June 1 since 1851—coupled with current inhibiting conditions: sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, elevated vertical wind shear exceeding 20 knots, and pervasive dry mid-level air. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk forecasts predict a below-normal 2026 season amid transitioning weak La Niña patterns. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming or an early African easterly wave encountering low-shear conditions, with daily NHC updates through May providing key monitoring points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$41,467종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook, issued as of mid-April 2026, states no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 7 days, reinforcing trader consensus at 96.4% for no hurricane by May 31. This high confidence stems from climatological rarity—fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or stronger) have formed before June 1 since 1851—coupled with current inhibiting conditions: sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, elevated vertical wind shear exceeding 20 knots, and pervasive dry mid-level air. Recent Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk forecasts predict a below-normal 2026 season amid transitioning weak La Niña patterns. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming or an early African easterly wave encountering low-shear conditions, with daily NHC updates through May providing key monitoring points.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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