Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$131,442 거래량
$131,442 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$131,442 거래량
$131,442 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
거래량
$131,442종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$131,442종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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