Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data for tankers, containers, and bulk carriers, reflecting a recent surge in traffic amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Over 20 commercial vessels passed unscathed in the last 24 hours—highest since disruptions began—bolstered by U.S. warship transits on April 11 and reports of 34 ships yesterday, easing prior blockades that slashed volumes to a 7-day average of 6.5 through April 12. Brent crude has dipped to $96 per barrel from $100+ peaks as supply fears moderate, though elevated tanker rates signal persistent risk premiums. With over 500 vessels backlogged and truce expiry on April 21, a mass exodus could push daily counts higher, but single attacks remain a tail risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$411,669 거래량
2026.04.30
20+
70%
40+
37%
60+
33%
80+
20%
$411,669 거래량
20+
$171,615 거래량
70%
40+
$67,528 거래량
37%
60+
$66,310 거래량
33%
80+
$106,384 거래량
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data for tankers, containers, and bulk carriers, reflecting a recent surge in traffic amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Over 20 commercial vessels passed unscathed in the last 24 hours—highest since disruptions began—bolstered by U.S. warship transits on April 11 and reports of 34 ships yesterday, easing prior blockades that slashed volumes to a 7-day average of 6.5 through April 12. Brent crude has dipped to $96 per barrel from $100+ peaks as supply fears moderate, though elevated tanker rates signal persistent risk premiums. With over 500 vessels backlogged and truce expiry on April 21, a mass exodus could push daily counts higher, but single attacks remain a tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
거래량
$411,669종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data for tankers, containers, and bulk carriers, reflecting a recent surge in traffic amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Over 20 commercial vessels passed unscathed in the last 24 hours—highest since disruptions began—bolstered by U.S. warship transits on April 11 and reports of 34 ships yesterday, easing prior blockades that slashed volumes to a 7-day average of 6.5 through April 12. Brent crude has dipped to $96 per barrel from $100+ peaks as supply fears moderate, though elevated tanker rates signal persistent risk premiums. With over 500 vessels backlogged and truce expiry on April 21, a mass exodus could push daily counts higher, but single attacks remain a tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$411,669종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data for tankers, containers, and bulk carriers, reflecting a recent surge in traffic amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Over 20 commercial vessels passed unscathed in the last 24 hours—highest since disruptions began—bolstered by U.S. warship transits on April 11 and reports of 34 ships yesterday, easing prior blockades that slashed volumes to a 7-day average of 6.5 through April 12. Brent crude has dipped to $96 per barrel from $100+ peaks as supply fears moderate, though elevated tanker rates signal persistent risk premiums. With over 500 vessels backlogged and truce expiry on April 21, a mass exodus could push daily counts higher, but single attacks remain a tail risk.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문