Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 14 amid stalled Iran peace talks, slashing daily ship arrivals to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per IMF PortWatch data, though over 20 commercial vessels passed in the past 24 hours despite six turnarounds. Elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel reflects supply constraints through this 20% global oil chokepoint, compounded by soaring war risk insurance premiums and rerouting costs for LNG carriers. Recent U.S. warship transits on April 11 signal military freedom of navigation, but commercial deterrence persists. Key catalyst ahead: two-week truce expiration April 21, with potential escalations or escorts influencing resolution via daily PortWatch "Arrivals of Ships" metrics by April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$406,155 거래량
2026.04.30
20+
70%
40+
52%
60+
35%
80+
19%
$406,155 거래량
20+
$171,090 거래량
70%
40+
$64,891 거래량
52%
60+
$65,715 거래량
35%
80+
$105,683 거래량
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 14 amid stalled Iran peace talks, slashing daily ship arrivals to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per IMF PortWatch data, though over 20 commercial vessels passed in the past 24 hours despite six turnarounds. Elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel reflects supply constraints through this 20% global oil chokepoint, compounded by soaring war risk insurance premiums and rerouting costs for LNG carriers. Recent U.S. warship transits on April 11 signal military freedom of navigation, but commercial deterrence persists. Key catalyst ahead: two-week truce expiration April 21, with potential escalations or escorts influencing resolution via daily PortWatch "Arrivals of Ships" metrics by April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
거래량
$406,155종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 14 amid stalled Iran peace talks, slashing daily ship arrivals to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per IMF PortWatch data, though over 20 commercial vessels passed in the past 24 hours despite six turnarounds. Elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel reflects supply constraints through this 20% global oil chokepoint, compounded by soaring war risk insurance premiums and rerouting costs for LNG carriers. Recent U.S. warship transits on April 11 signal military freedom of navigation, but commercial deterrence persists. Key catalyst ahead: two-week truce expiration April 21, with potential escalations or escorts influencing resolution via daily PortWatch "Arrivals of Ships" metrics by April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$406,155종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Strait of Hormuz transits hinges on the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 14 amid stalled Iran peace talks, slashing daily ship arrivals to under 10% of pre-crisis norms per IMF PortWatch data, though over 20 commercial vessels passed in the past 24 hours despite six turnarounds. Elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel reflects supply constraints through this 20% global oil chokepoint, compounded by soaring war risk insurance premiums and rerouting costs for LNG carriers. Recent U.S. warship transits on April 11 signal military freedom of navigation, but commercial deterrence persists. Key catalyst ahead: two-week truce expiration April 21, with potential escalations or escorts influencing resolution via daily PortWatch "Arrivals of Ships" metrics by April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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