Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles point to a stable winter high-pressure system over New Zealand, keeping Wellington's maximum temperature on August 6 near the 10–11°C range that now carries over 90% combined implied probability. Persistent southerly winds and cooler Tasman Sea surface temperatures typical of mid-winter are limiting daytime warming, while clear skies overnight support radiational cooling that aligns with historical August maxima of 11–12°C. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor timing differences in a weak front expected late in the day, reducing the chance of exceeding 12°C or falling below 10°C. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak before markets resolve.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 51%
10°C 40%
12°C 11%
9°C 2%
NOWE
$22,192 Wol.
NOWE
$22,192 Wol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
40%
11°C
51%
12°C
11%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 51%
10°C 40%
12°C 11%
9°C 2%
NOWE
$22,192 Wol.
NOWE
$22,192 Wol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$373 Wol.
<1%
6°C
$353 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$581 Wol.
<1%
8°C
$1,962 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$2,406 Wol.
2%
10°C
$4,028 Wol.
40%
11°C
$4,821 Wol.
51%
12°C
$4,326 Wol.
11%
13°C
$2,568 Wol.
1%
14°C
$577 Wol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$197 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles point to a stable winter high-pressure system over New Zealand, keeping Wellington's maximum temperature on August 6 near the 10–11°C range that now carries over 90% combined implied probability. Persistent southerly winds and cooler Tasman Sea surface temperatures typical of mid-winter are limiting daytime warming, while clear skies overnight support radiational cooling that aligns with historical August maxima of 11–12°C. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor timing differences in a weak front expected late in the day, reducing the chance of exceeding 12°C or falling below 10°C. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak before markets resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,192Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles point to a stable winter high-pressure system over New Zealand, keeping Wellington's maximum temperature on August 6 near the 10–11°C range that now carries over 90% combined implied probability. Persistent southerly winds and cooler Tasman Sea surface temperatures typical of mid-winter are limiting daytime warming, while clear skies overnight support radiational cooling that aligns with historical August maxima of 11–12°C. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor timing differences in a weak front expected late in the day, reducing the chance of exceeding 12°C or falling below 10°C. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak before markets resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$22,192Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles point to a stable winter high-pressure system over New Zealand, keeping Wellington's maximum temperature on August 6 near the 10–11°C range that now carries over 90% combined implied probability. Persistent southerly winds and cooler Tasman Sea surface temperatures typical of mid-winter are limiting daytime warming, while clear skies overnight support radiational cooling that aligns with historical August maxima of 11–12°C. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor timing differences in a weak front expected late in the day, reducing the chance of exceeding 12°C or falling below 10°C. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak before markets resolve.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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