Recent developments have tempered expectations of further OPEC exits in 2026. The United Arab Emirates departed effective May 1 after years of quota disputes and amid the Iran war's supply disruptions, marking the second major withdrawal following Angola's 2024 exit. Iraq signaled potential departure in June over production limits but quickly clarified its commitment to remain while seeking higher quotas. Venezuela has conducted internal reviews of membership but faces no immediate pressure to act, given its modest output and ongoing capacity constraints. OPEC+ members continue coordinated meetings and output reviews through September and October, with core producers reaffirming cooperation despite reduced cohesion. These factors underpin trader consensus against additional departures before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% chance
$177,334 Vol.
$177,334 Vol.
31 dez 2026
37% chance
$177,334 Vol.
$177,334 Vol.
31 dez 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments have tempered expectations of further OPEC exits in 2026. The United Arab Emirates departed effective May 1 after years of quota disputes and amid the Iran war's supply disruptions, marking the second major withdrawal following Angola's 2024 exit. Iraq signaled potential departure in June over production limits but quickly clarified its commitment to remain while seeking higher quotas. Venezuela has conducted internal reviews of membership but faces no immediate pressure to act, given its modest output and ongoing capacity constraints. OPEC+ members continue coordinated meetings and output reviews through September and October, with core producers reaffirming cooperation despite reduced cohesion. These factors underpin trader consensus against additional departures before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$177,334Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments have tempered expectations of further OPEC exits in 2026. The United Arab Emirates departed effective May 1 after years of quota disputes and amid the Iran war's supply disruptions, marking the second major withdrawal following Angola's 2024 exit. Iraq signaled potential departure in June over production limits but quickly clarified its commitment to remain while seeking higher quotas. Venezuela has conducted internal reviews of membership but faces no immediate pressure to act, given its modest output and ongoing capacity constraints. OPEC+ members continue coordinated meetings and output reviews through September and October, with core producers reaffirming cooperation despite reduced cohesion. These factors underpin trader consensus against additional departures before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$177,334Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments have tempered expectations of further OPEC exits in 2026. The United Arab Emirates departed effective May 1 after years of quota disputes and amid the Iran war's supply disruptions, marking the second major withdrawal following Angola's 2024 exit. Iraq signaled potential departure in June over production limits but quickly clarified its commitment to remain while seeking higher quotas. Venezuela has conducted internal reviews of membership but faces no immediate pressure to act, given its modest output and ongoing capacity constraints. OPEC+ members continue coordinated meetings and output reviews through September and October, with core producers reaffirming cooperation despite reduced cohesion. These factors underpin trader consensus against additional departures before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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