Recent forecast ensembles from ECMWF and Météo-France have converged on mild spring conditions for Paris, driving trader consensus toward highs of 14–16°C with 30.5%, 24%, and 21% implied probabilities respectively, amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer southerly flows. These closely matched odds reflect model spread: the 12-member ECMWF mean projects 15.2°C, but perturbations diverge by ±1.5°C due to variable cloud cover and diel timing of peak insolation. Historical March 22 averages hover at 12°C, yet ongoing Atlantic warming boosts outlier risks above 17°C (4.1%), while cooler 13°C (15.5%) accounts for potential northerly shifts; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
14°C 30%
15°C 24%
16°C 21%
13°C 18%
$14,053 Объем
$14,053 Объем
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
18%
14°C
30%
15°C
24%
16°C
21%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 30%
15°C 24%
16°C 21%
13°C 18%
$14,053 Объем
$14,053 Объем
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
18%
14°C
30%
15°C
24%
16°C
21%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast ensembles from ECMWF and Météo-France have converged on mild spring conditions for Paris, driving trader consensus toward highs of 14–16°C with 30.5%, 24%, and 21% implied probabilities respectively, amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer southerly flows. These closely matched odds reflect model spread: the 12-member ECMWF mean projects 15.2°C, but perturbations diverge by ±1.5°C due to variable cloud cover and diel timing of peak insolation. Historical March 22 averages hover at 12°C, yet ongoing Atlantic warming boosts outlier risks above 17°C (4.1%), while cooler 13°C (15.5%) accounts for potential northerly shifts; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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