Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15–17°C maxima for Paris on March 23, reflecting ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS forecasts projecting mild Atlantic inflows amid a weakening high-pressure ridge, with mean highs near 16°C. Recent 00Z model runs show slight bullish shifts toward 17°C due to reduced cloud cover in high-resolution ICON outputs, boosting its edge over 15°C, while 20°C+ odds hold at 15% on outlier warmer scenarios from southerly gusts. Historical March averages (11–13°C) and urban heat island effects provide upside potential, but diurnal uncertainty—tied to boundary layer mixing and insolation—keeps lower teens viable, differentiating the pack via 2–3°C forecast spreads. Key watch: Météo-France 12Z update for resolution tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 23?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 23?
16°C 23%
17°C 22%
15°C 20%
20°C or higher 18.9%
10°C or below
2%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
6%
14°C
18%
15°C
20%
16°C
23%
17°C
22%
18°C
10%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
14%
16°C 23%
17°C 22%
15°C 20%
20°C or higher 18.9%
10°C or below
2%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
6%
14°C
18%
15°C
20%
16°C
23%
17°C
22%
18°C
10%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15–17°C maxima for Paris on March 23, reflecting ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS forecasts projecting mild Atlantic inflows amid a weakening high-pressure ridge, with mean highs near 16°C. Recent 00Z model runs show slight bullish shifts toward 17°C due to reduced cloud cover in high-resolution ICON outputs, boosting its edge over 15°C, while 20°C+ odds hold at 15% on outlier warmer scenarios from southerly gusts. Historical March averages (11–13°C) and urban heat island effects provide upside potential, but diurnal uncertainty—tied to boundary layer mixing and insolation—keeps lower teens viable, differentiating the pack via 2–3°C forecast spreads. Key watch: Météo-France 12Z update for resolution tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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