Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 Объем
$329,444 Объем
2 апр. 2026 г.
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 Объем
$329,444 Объем
2 апр. 2026 г.
15°C or below
$13,384 Объем
No
16°C
$6,891 Объем
No
17°C
$20,412 Объем
No
18°C
$23,797 Объем
No
19°C
$22,287 Объем
No
20°C
$25,138 Объем
No
21°C
$35,998 Объем
No
22°C
$89,071 Объем
Yes
23°C
$34,712 Объем
No
24°C
$29,479 Объем
No
25°C or higher
$28,274 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Объем
$329,444Дата окончания
2 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$329,444Дата окончания
2 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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