Latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF point to a high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow into Taipei, favoring peak temperatures around 26°C with 27% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C at 21.5%. This edges out cooler 24-25°C outcomes amid a 2°C model spread stemming from uncertain afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress maxima by enhancing low-level convergence. March historical averages hover near 23°C, but recent days' warming trend—yesterday's 25°C high—bolsters trader consensus on mid-20s, with urban heat island effects at the official station potentially tipping toward 26-27°C if clear skies persist into midday.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
26°C 27%
23°C 19%
24°C 18%
25°C 15%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
16%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
18%
26°C
27%
27°C
21%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
8%
26°C 27%
23°C 19%
24°C 18%
25°C 15%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
16%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
18%
26°C
27%
27°C
21%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
This market will resolve to the degree indicated in its title (e.g., if a market's title indicates it will resolve to "Yes" if 21°C is the highest temperature on a given day, all temperatures within the range 21.0-21.9°C [inclusive] will qualify).
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models like ECMWF point to a high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow into Taipei, favoring peak temperatures around 26°C with 27% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C at 21.5%. This edges out cooler 24-25°C outcomes amid a 2°C model spread stemming from uncertain afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze timing, which could suppress maxima by enhancing low-level convergence. March historical averages hover near 23°C, but recent days' warming trend—yesterday's 25°C high—bolsters trader consensus on mid-20s, with urban heat island effects at the official station potentially tipping toward 26-27°C if clear skies persist into midday.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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