Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high temperature of 26–28°C on March 23, with 27°C edging out at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering that reflects model forecast spread from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA). Primary drivers include persistent southerly winds carrying warm, moist air from the South China Sea, boosting highs above the March historical average of 23–24°C, while partial cloud cover from an approaching frontal system caps extremes—differentiating 27°C (sunny breaks allowing peak heating) from cooler 26°C (increased overcast) or warmer 28°C (full clearing unlikely per ECMWF ensembles). Urban heat island effects in Taipei amplify diurnal peaks by 1–2°C, but overnight cooling and 60–70% humidity temper volatility; monitor CWA's 12Z update for resolution-shifting refinements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
26°C 26%
28°C 18%
22°C or below
13%
23°C
14%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
5%
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
26°C 26%
28°C 18%
22°C or below
13%
23°C
14%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high temperature of 26–28°C on March 23, with 27°C edging out at 26.5% implied probability amid tight clustering that reflects model forecast spread from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA). Primary drivers include persistent southerly winds carrying warm, moist air from the South China Sea, boosting highs above the March historical average of 23–24°C, while partial cloud cover from an approaching frontal system caps extremes—differentiating 27°C (sunny breaks allowing peak heating) from cooler 26°C (increased overcast) or warmer 28°C (full clearing unlikely per ECMWF ensembles). Urban heat island effects in Taipei amplify diurnal peaks by 1–2°C, but overnight cooling and 60–70% humidity temper volatility; monitor CWA's 12Z update for resolution-shifting refinements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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