Arkansas’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent presidential cycles and positioning it among the most reliably conservative House seats nationally. Incumbent Bruce Westerman, first elected in 2014, advanced through the Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination in March 2026. These structural factors, combined with the district’s rural and southern Arkansas character, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment could theoretically narrow margins, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts show limited precedent for such shifts before November 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAR-04 House Election Winner
AR-04 House Election Winner
$15,830 ปริมาณ
$15,830 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$15,830 ปริมาณ
$15,830 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,581 ปริมาณ
94%
Democratic Party
$6,248 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arkansas’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent presidential cycles and positioning it among the most reliably conservative House seats nationally. Incumbent Bruce Westerman, first elected in 2014, advanced through the Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination in March 2026. These structural factors, combined with the district’s rural and southern Arkansas character, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment could theoretically narrow margins, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts show limited precedent for such shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,830วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arkansas’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent presidential cycles and positioning it among the most reliably conservative House seats nationally. Incumbent Bruce Westerman, first elected in 2014, advanced through the Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination in March 2026. These structural factors, combined with the district’s rural and southern Arkansas character, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment could theoretically narrow margins, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts show limited precedent for such shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,830วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arkansas’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent presidential cycles and positioning it among the most reliably conservative House seats nationally. Incumbent Bruce Westerman, first elected in 2014, advanced through the Republican primary without notable opposition, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination in March 2026. These structural factors, combined with the district’s rural and southern Arkansas character, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment could theoretically narrow margins, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts show limited precedent for such shifts before November 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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