Following voter-approved redistricting via Proposition 50 in November 2025, California's 3rd Congressional District shifted to a D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points, earning Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley's March 9 switch from Republican to independent further eroded GOP prospects in the top-two primary on June 2, leaving a weak Republican field against frontrunner Rep. Ami Bera and other Democrats like Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democratic Party victory at 91.5%. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary surge, Kiley's independent bid caucusing Republican, or a Democratic scandal before November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$20,183 ปริมาณ
$20,183 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$20,183 ปริมาณ
$20,183 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,257 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$9,926 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following voter-approved redistricting via Proposition 50 in November 2025, California's 3rd Congressional District shifted to a D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points, earning Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley's March 9 switch from Republican to independent further eroded GOP prospects in the top-two primary on June 2, leaving a weak Republican field against frontrunner Rep. Ami Bera and other Democrats like Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democratic Party victory at 91.5%. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary surge, Kiley's independent bid caucusing Republican, or a Democratic scandal before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,183วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following voter-approved redistricting via Proposition 50 in November 2025, California's 3rd Congressional District shifted to a D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points, earning Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley's March 9 switch from Republican to independent further eroded GOP prospects in the top-two primary on June 2, leaving a weak Republican field against frontrunner Rep. Ami Bera and other Democrats like Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democratic Party victory at 91.5%. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary surge, Kiley's independent bid caucusing Republican, or a Democratic scandal before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,183วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following voter-approved redistricting via Proposition 50 in November 2025, California's 3rd Congressional District shifted to a D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index lean where Kamala Harris won by 10 points, earning Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley's March 9 switch from Republican to independent further eroded GOP prospects in the top-two primary on June 2, leaving a weak Republican field against frontrunner Rep. Ami Bera and other Democrats like Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democratic Party victory at 91.5%. Challenges could arise from a GOP primary surge, Kiley's independent bid caucusing Republican, or a Democratic scandal before November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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