Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 29th Congressional District general election on November 3, driven by the seat's solid Democratic partisan voting index and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Benito Bernal. Rivas benefits from endorsements by retiring Rep. Tony Cárdenas and the Democratic establishment, positioning her strongly for the June 2 top-two primary amid minimal reported challengers. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the 92.5% implied probability reflects historical base rates for safe Democratic strongholds in the San Fernando Valley. Upsets could stem from a scandal, primary surprise yielding a weaker nominee, or a national midterm Republican wave, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-29 House Election Winner
CA-29 House Election Winner
$15,396 ปริมาณ
$15,396 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$15,396 ปริมาณ
$15,396 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,301 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican Party
$5,095 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 29th Congressional District general election on November 3, driven by the seat's solid Democratic partisan voting index and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Benito Bernal. Rivas benefits from endorsements by retiring Rep. Tony Cárdenas and the Democratic establishment, positioning her strongly for the June 2 top-two primary amid minimal reported challengers. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the 92.5% implied probability reflects historical base rates for safe Democratic strongholds in the San Fernando Valley. Upsets could stem from a scandal, primary surprise yielding a weaker nominee, or a national midterm Republican wave, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,396วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 29th Congressional District general election on November 3, driven by the seat's solid Democratic partisan voting index and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Benito Bernal. Rivas benefits from endorsements by retiring Rep. Tony Cárdenas and the Democratic establishment, positioning her strongly for the June 2 top-two primary amid minimal reported challengers. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the 92.5% implied probability reflects historical base rates for safe Democratic strongholds in the San Fernando Valley. Upsets could stem from a scandal, primary surprise yielding a weaker nominee, or a national midterm Republican wave, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,396วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 29th Congressional District general election on November 3, driven by the seat's solid Democratic partisan voting index and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Benito Bernal. Rivas benefits from endorsements by retiring Rep. Tony Cárdenas and the Democratic establishment, positioning her strongly for the June 2 top-two primary amid minimal reported challengers. With no major developments in the past 30 days altering dynamics, the 92.5% implied probability reflects historical base rates for safe Democratic strongholds in the San Fernando Valley. Upsets could stem from a scandal, primary surprise yielding a weaker nominee, or a national midterm Republican wave, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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