Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four or five countries as most likely for Israeli strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed military actions in Iran—where U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28 amid regime change aims—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Recent escalations drove this positioning: Houthi attacks from Yemen resumed March 28, prompting responses, while Israeli airstrikes intensified in southern Lebanon and Beirut last week (April 8–10), killing dozens and threatening a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran. Ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis keep the race tight between four established targets and a potential fifth like Iraq, where militias have targeted U.S. bases; de-escalation talks or further barrages could tip probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi4 28.2%
5 27.2%
6 14.1%
3 11.6%
$6,434,184 Hac.
$6,434,184 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
3
12%
4
28%
5
27%
6
14%
7
3%
8
1%
9
1%
10
2%
11
2%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 28.2%
5 27.2%
6 14.1%
3 11.6%
$6,434,184 Hac.
$6,434,184 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
3
$1,900,083 Hac.
12%
4
$1,144,743 Hac.
28%
5
$496,703 Hac.
27%
6
$626,859 Hac.
14%
7
$602,404 Hac.
3%
8
$500,382 Hac.
1%
9
$222,022 Hac.
1%
10
$375,940 Hac.
2%
11
$101,456 Hac.
2%
12
$62,139 Hac.
<1%
13
$139,205 Hac.
<1%
14
$100,735 Hac.
<1%
15+
$36,247 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four or five countries as most likely for Israeli strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed military actions in Iran—where U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28 amid regime change aims—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Recent escalations drove this positioning: Houthi attacks from Yemen resumed March 28, prompting responses, while Israeli airstrikes intensified in southern Lebanon and Beirut last week (April 8–10), killing dozens and threatening a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran. Ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis keep the race tight between four established targets and a potential fifth like Iraq, where militias have targeted U.S. bases; de-escalation talks or further barrages could tip probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Hacim
$6,434,184Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four or five countries as most likely for Israeli strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed military actions in Iran—where U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28 amid regime change aims—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Recent escalations drove this positioning: Houthi attacks from Yemen resumed March 28, prompting responses, while Israeli airstrikes intensified in southern Lebanon and Beirut last week (April 8–10), killing dozens and threatening a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran. Ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis keep the race tight between four established targets and a potential fifth like Iraq, where militias have targeted U.S. bases; de-escalation talks or further barrages could tip probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$6,434,184Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four or five countries as most likely for Israeli strikes in 2026, reflecting confirmed military actions in Iran—where U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28 amid regime change aims—Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Recent escalations drove this positioning: Houthi attacks from Yemen resumed March 28, prompting responses, while Israeli airstrikes intensified in southern Lebanon and Beirut last week (April 8–10), killing dozens and threatening a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran. Ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis keep the race tight between four established targets and a potential fifth like Iraq, where militias have targeted U.S. bases; de-escalation talks or further barrages could tip probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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