Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, surpassing the 2015 JCPOA, have driven trader consensus to a 74% implied probability of a deal before 2027. The first round of talks in Islamabad last week ended without agreement after 21 hours, with the US demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension and Iran countering with a shorter five-year moratorium, amid a US-announced Strait of Hormuz blockade to pressure Tehran on nuclear curbs and regional de-escalation. Recent reports indicate progress, including Iran's revised proposal softening demands on enrichment, US troops, and reparations; Vice President Vance cited "a lot of momentum," and President Trump signaled a second round could resume imminently, potentially stabilizing oil markets and averting escalation before year-end deadlines.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$644,006 Hac.
$644,006 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$644,006 Hac.
$644,006 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, surpassing the 2015 JCPOA, have driven trader consensus to a 74% implied probability of a deal before 2027. The first round of talks in Islamabad last week ended without agreement after 21 hours, with the US demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension and Iran countering with a shorter five-year moratorium, amid a US-announced Strait of Hormuz blockade to pressure Tehran on nuclear curbs and regional de-escalation. Recent reports indicate progress, including Iran's revised proposal softening demands on enrichment, US troops, and reparations; Vice President Vance cited "a lot of momentum," and President Trump signaled a second round could resume imminently, potentially stabilizing oil markets and averting escalation before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Hacim
$644,006Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, surpassing the 2015 JCPOA, have driven trader consensus to a 74% implied probability of a deal before 2027. The first round of talks in Islamabad last week ended without agreement after 21 hours, with the US demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension and Iran countering with a shorter five-year moratorium, amid a US-announced Strait of Hormuz blockade to pressure Tehran on nuclear curbs and regional de-escalation. Recent reports indicate progress, including Iran's revised proposal softening demands on enrichment, US troops, and reparations; Vice President Vance cited "a lot of momentum," and President Trump signaled a second round could resume imminently, potentially stabilizing oil markets and averting escalation before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Hacim
$644,006Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, surpassing the 2015 JCPOA, have driven trader consensus to a 74% implied probability of a deal before 2027. The first round of talks in Islamabad last week ended without agreement after 21 hours, with the US demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension and Iran countering with a shorter five-year moratorium, amid a US-announced Strait of Hormuz blockade to pressure Tehran on nuclear curbs and regional de-escalation. Recent reports indicate progress, including Iran's revised proposal softening demands on enrichment, US troops, and reparations; Vice President Vance cited "a lot of momentum," and President Trump signaled a second round could resume imminently, potentially stabilizing oil markets and averting escalation before year-end deadlines.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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