The California 14th congressional district's strong Democratic registration advantage and California's top-two primary system, which advanced only Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez to the November 2026 general election, drive the overwhelming trader consensus for a Democratic winner. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting consistent party performance in this East Bay district even after the April 2026 resignation of former representative Eric Swalwell. The recent special election runoff, won by Wahab, further underscores the lack of viable Republican competition under current boundaries and voting rules. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain narrow, such as a candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to ballot access, or unexpected shifts in turnout patterns within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$35,762 交易量
$35,762 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
96%
共和黨
1%
$35,762 交易量
$35,762 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$14,006 交易量
96%
共和黨
$21,756 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 14th congressional district's strong Democratic registration advantage and California's top-two primary system, which advanced only Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez to the November 2026 general election, drive the overwhelming trader consensus for a Democratic winner. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting consistent party performance in this East Bay district even after the April 2026 resignation of former representative Eric Swalwell. The recent special election runoff, won by Wahab, further underscores the lack of viable Republican competition under current boundaries and voting rules. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain narrow, such as a candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to ballot access, or unexpected shifts in turnout patterns within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$35,762結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 14th congressional district's strong Democratic registration advantage and California's top-two primary system, which advanced only Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez to the November 2026 general election, drive the overwhelming trader consensus for a Democratic winner. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting consistent party performance in this East Bay district even after the April 2026 resignation of former representative Eric Swalwell. The recent special election runoff, won by Wahab, further underscores the lack of viable Republican competition under current boundaries and voting rules. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain narrow, such as a candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to ballot access, or unexpected shifts in turnout patterns within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,762結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThe California 14th congressional district's strong Democratic registration advantage and California's top-two primary system, which advanced only Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez to the November 2026 general election, drive the overwhelming trader consensus for a Democratic winner. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting consistent party performance in this East Bay district even after the April 2026 resignation of former representative Eric Swalwell. The recent special election runoff, won by Wahab, further underscores the lack of viable Republican competition under current boundaries and voting rules. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain narrow, such as a candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to ballot access, or unexpected shifts in turnout patterns within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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