Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 23%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
9%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
23%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
8%
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 23%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
37°F or below
$724 交易量
<1%
38-39°F
$568 交易量
<1%
40-41°F
$713 交易量
<1%
42-43°F
$1,066 交易量
2%
44-45°F
$636 交易量
9%
46-47°F
$696 交易量
9%
48-49°F
$777 交易量
18%
50-51°F
$1,044 交易量
25%
52-53°F
$828 交易量
23%
54-55°F
$876 交易量
15%
56°F or higher
$1,237 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
交易量
$9,164結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,164結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket centers implied probabilities around 50-53°F for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 5, slightly below the 54.8°F seasonal normal, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s amid a cool upper-level trough over the Midwest. Recent developments include March 2026's mild average of 44.8°F—nearly 5°F above normal—and an active storm pattern spilling into early April with showers and thunderstorms, fostering cloud cover that caps daytime heating. Differentiating factors among close-leading bins include model spreads on frontal timing, low-level wind shear, and boundary layer mixing; a faster-clearing scenario favors 52-53°F, while persistent overcast supports 48-51°F. New 00z/12z model runs today and tomorrow from the National Weather Service Chicago office will likely sharpen these odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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