National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 交易量
$44,325 交易量
2026-05-04
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
Yes
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 交易量
$44,325 交易量
2026-05-04
49°F or below
$3,483 交易量
No
50-51°F
$1,616 交易量
No
52-53°F
$1,334 交易量
No
54-55°F
$1,209 交易量
No
56-57°F
$1,909 交易量
No
58-59°F
$1,799 交易量
No
60-61°F
$1,711 交易量
No
62-63°F
$3,220 交易量
No
64-65°F
$3,521 交易量
No
66-67°F
$8,930 交易量
No
68°F or higher
$15,593 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$44,325結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$44,325結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions