Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 交易量
$71,534 交易量
2026-05-12
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 交易量
$71,534 交易量
2026-05-12
12°C or below
$8,525 交易量
No
13°C
$5,768 交易量
No
14°C
$10,201 交易量
Yes
15°C
$4,183 交易量
No
16°C
$5,882 交易量
No
17°C
$5,244 交易量
No
18°C
$3,746 交易量
No
19°C
$5,989 交易量
No
20°C
$7,158 交易量
No
21°C
$7,042 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$7,796 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
交易量
$71,534結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$71,534結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions