Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which show a high-pressure ridge strengthening over Western Europe to deliver southerly airflow and above-average highs near Paris on April 8, clustering implied probabilities around 22–24°C. AccuWeather's latest run projects 21°C amid this warming trend from recent milder conditions (Paris max 18°C on April 4 per Météo-France), but model spread—driven by variables like cloud cover, exact ridge position, and urban heat effects at the official Paris-Montsouris station—differentiates closely matched outcomes. Early April climatology averages 15°C highs, making 20–25°C feasible yet sensitive to daily updates; new forecast cycles from Météo-France and ECMWF runs every 12 hours will refine this skin-in-the-game assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月8日巴黎最高溫度?
4月8日巴黎最高溫度?
24°C 21%
22°C 18%
23°C 13%
21°C 11%
18°C或以下
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
8%
21°C
11%
22°C
18%
23°C
13%
24°C
21%
25°C
11%
26°C
5%
27°C
5%
28°C或以上
4%
24°C 21%
22°C 18%
23°C 13%
21°C 11%
18°C或以下
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
8%
21°C
11%
22°C
18%
23°C
13%
24°C
21%
25°C
11%
26°C
5%
27°C
5%
28°C或以上
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which show a high-pressure ridge strengthening over Western Europe to deliver southerly airflow and above-average highs near Paris on April 8, clustering implied probabilities around 22–24°C. AccuWeather's latest run projects 21°C amid this warming trend from recent milder conditions (Paris max 18°C on April 4 per Météo-France), but model spread—driven by variables like cloud cover, exact ridge position, and urban heat effects at the official Paris-Montsouris station—differentiates closely matched outcomes. Early April climatology averages 15°C highs, making 20–25°C feasible yet sensitive to daily updates; new forecast cycles from Météo-France and ECMWF runs every 12 hours will refine this skin-in-the-game assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions