Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 4?
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,169 交易量
$65,169 交易量
2026-05-04
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,169 交易量
$65,169 交易量
2026-05-04
18°C or below
$436 交易量
No
19°C
$445 交易量
No
20°C
$511 交易量
No
21°C
$1,447 交易量
No
22°C
$2,355 交易量
No
23°C
$3,839 交易量
No
24°C
$4,629 交易量
No
25°C
$19,697 交易量
No
26°C
$6,800 交易量
Yes
27°C
$15,502 交易量
No
28°C or higher
$9,508 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$65,169結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$65,169結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on May 4, driven by the latest observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, where METAR reports show peak readings around 26°C under persistent cloud cover and showers. This positioning reflects a recent bout of heavy rain from cold-warm air convergence ahead of May Day holidays, capping solar heating well below the typical May average high of 29°C—yesterday's 28°C maximum already trended cooler. Model consensus, including TAF guidance, reinforces this with limited intensification potential. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1°C solar-driven spike, though ongoing rain probabilities exceed 50%, making higher outcomes improbable. Final airport data releases later today will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions