**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月15日東京氣溫最高？
6月15日東京氣溫最高？
22°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$124,418 交易量
$124,418 交易量
2026-06-15
17°C或以下
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C或以上
否
22°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$124,418 交易量
$124,418 交易量
2026-06-15
17°C或以下
$3,194 交易量
否
18°C
$4,979 交易量
否
19°C
$6,813 交易量
否
20°C
$29,308 交易量
否
21°C
$17,634 交易量
否
22°C
$15,577 交易量
是
23°C
$17,130 交易量
否
24°C
$13,730 交易量
否
25°C
$4,617 交易量
否
26°C
$4,881 交易量
否
27°C或以上
$6,555 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$124,418結束日期
2026-06-15市場開放時間
Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$124,418結束日期
2026-06-15市場開放時間
Jun 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus has converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Tokyo’s highest temperature on June 15, 2026, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecast and ensemble model guidance.** A modest subtropical ridge combined with lingering Baiu-season cloud cover is limiting solar heating, producing daytime maxima consistent with 21–22°C at the Otemachi observation site—the official resolution source. This aligns with early-June climatology when frontal activity often caps temperatures several degrees below the monthly normal of ~26°C. The market-implied probability above 99% for 22°C incorporates real capital at risk and accounts for minor remaining uncertainty in afternoon mixing or localized clearing. An unexpected rapid dissipation of cloud cover or a sharper ridge build could allow readings to reach 23–24°C, though current model consensus and ongoing JMA updates make such shifts unlikely before final observations are recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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