Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 交易量
$157,797 交易量
2026-05-11
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 交易量
$157,797 交易量
2026-05-11
15°C or below
$761 交易量
No
16°C
$1,742 交易量
No
17°C
$578 交易量
No
18°C
$427 交易量
No
19°C
$2,556 交易量
No
20°C
$2,183 交易量
No
21°C
$4,284 交易量
No
22°C
$12,127 交易量
No
23°C
$84,569 交易量
No
24°C
$20,324 交易量
Yes
25°C or higher
$28,245 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET
交易量
$157,797結束日期
2026-05-11市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$157,797結束日期
2026-05-11市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions