**Recent forecasts position the overnight low in Paris on August 31 around 16–17 °C, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor those two outcomes (51% for 17 °C and 39.5% for 16 °C).** Current model consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF/GFS runs, and local services shows a mild southwesterly flow maintaining temperatures above seasonal norms, with partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent days have featured lows near 16–17 °C amid overcast skies and light showers, continuing a warmer-than-average August pattern roughly 2–3 °C above the long-term mean. This setup reduces the likelihood of deeper cooling to 15 °C or below (combined probability ~12%), while the modest spread to 18 °C (8.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud timing and wind speeds. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance showing stabilization around these values ahead of resolution, consistent with historical late-August behavior modified by the current mild air mass. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日巴黎最低溫度？
8月31日巴黎最低溫度？
17°C 45%
16°C 41%
18°C 17%
13°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
12°C或以下
7%
13°C
12%
14°C
12%
15°C
12%
16°C
41%
17°C
45%
18°C
17%
19°C
12%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C或以上
9%
17°C 45%
16°C 41%
18°C 17%
13°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
12°C或以下
$0 交易量
7%
13°C
$0 交易量
12%
14°C
$0 交易量
12%
15°C
$0 交易量
12%
16°C
$18 交易量
41%
17°C
$6 交易量
45%
18°C
$0 交易量
17%
19°C
$0 交易量
12%
20°C
$0 交易量
2%
21°C
$0 交易量
8%
22°C或以上
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position the overnight low in Paris on August 31 around 16–17 °C, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor those two outcomes (51% for 17 °C and 39.5% for 16 °C).**
Current model consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF/GFS runs, and local services shows a mild southwesterly flow maintaining temperatures above seasonal norms, with partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent days have featured lows near 16–17 °C amid overcast skies and light showers, continuing a warmer-than-average August pattern roughly 2–3 °C above the long-term mean.
This setup reduces the likelihood of deeper cooling to 15 °C or below (combined probability ~12%), while the modest spread to 18 °C (8.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud timing and wind speeds. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance showing stabilization around these values ahead of resolution, consistent with historical late-August behavior modified by the current mild air mass. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$24結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position the overnight low in Paris on August 31 around 16–17 °C, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor those two outcomes (51% for 17 °C and 39.5% for 16 °C).**
Current model consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF/GFS runs, and local services shows a mild southwesterly flow maintaining temperatures above seasonal norms, with partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent days have featured lows near 16–17 °C amid overcast skies and light showers, continuing a warmer-than-average August pattern roughly 2–3 °C above the long-term mean.
This setup reduces the likelihood of deeper cooling to 15 °C or below (combined probability ~12%), while the modest spread to 18 °C (8.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud timing and wind speeds. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance showing stabilization around these values ahead of resolution, consistent with historical late-August behavior modified by the current mild air mass. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Recent forecasts position the overnight low in Paris on August 31 around 16–17 °C, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor those two outcomes (51% for 17 °C and 39.5% for 16 °C).** Current model consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF/GFS runs, and local services shows a mild southwesterly flow maintaining temperatures above seasonal norms, with partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent days have featured lows near 16–17 °C amid overcast skies and light showers, continuing a warmer-than-average August pattern roughly 2–3 °C above the long-term mean. This setup reduces the likelihood of deeper cooling to 15 °C or below (combined probability ~12%), while the modest spread to 18 °C (8.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud timing and wind speeds. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance showing stabilization around these values ahead of resolution, consistent with historical late-August behavior modified by the current mild air mass. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions