Persistent rain, extensive cloud cover, and northerly winds have driven Tokyo’s minimum temperature toward 21°C on August 29, well below the late-August climatological average of roughly 24°C. Official forecasts from multiple agencies converge on overnight lows of 20–21°C amid high humidity and suppressed radiative cooling, aligning with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for exactly 21°C. Model consensus and real-time observations from Tokyo stations show little scope for further cooling below 20°C without unexpected clear-sky development or wind shifts. A modest warming scenario above 22°C would require rapid clearing and southerly flow, conditions not supported by current guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月29日東京的最低溫度？
8月29日東京的最低溫度？
21°C 63%
20°C 6%
19°C or below 3%
22°C <1%
$12,014 交易量
$12,014 交易量
2026-08-29
19°C or below
3%
20°C
23%
21°C
63%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
21°C 63%
20°C 6%
19°C or below 3%
22°C <1%
$12,014 交易量
$12,014 交易量
2026-08-29
19°C or below
$602 交易量
3%
20°C
$216 交易量
23%
21°C
$582 交易量
63%
22°C
$1,342 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,527 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,003 交易量
<1%
25°C
$606 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,612 交易量
<1%
27°C
$1,364 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,876 交易量
<1%
29°C or higher
$1,283 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain, extensive cloud cover, and northerly winds have driven Tokyo’s minimum temperature toward 21°C on August 29, well below the late-August climatological average of roughly 24°C. Official forecasts from multiple agencies converge on overnight lows of 20–21°C amid high humidity and suppressed radiative cooling, aligning with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for exactly 21°C. Model consensus and real-time observations from Tokyo stations show little scope for further cooling below 20°C without unexpected clear-sky development or wind shifts. A modest warming scenario above 22°C would require rapid clearing and southerly flow, conditions not supported by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,014結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain, extensive cloud cover, and northerly winds have driven Tokyo’s minimum temperature toward 21°C on August 29, well below the late-August climatological average of roughly 24°C. Official forecasts from multiple agencies converge on overnight lows of 20–21°C amid high humidity and suppressed radiative cooling, aligning with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for exactly 21°C. Model consensus and real-time observations from Tokyo stations show little scope for further cooling below 20°C without unexpected clear-sky development or wind shifts. A modest warming scenario above 22°C would require rapid clearing and southerly flow, conditions not supported by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,014結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETPersistent rain, extensive cloud cover, and northerly winds have driven Tokyo’s minimum temperature toward 21°C on August 29, well below the late-August climatological average of roughly 24°C. Official forecasts from multiple agencies converge on overnight lows of 20–21°C amid high humidity and suppressed radiative cooling, aligning with the market’s 91.5% implied probability for exactly 21°C. Model consensus and real-time observations from Tokyo stations show little scope for further cooling below 20°C without unexpected clear-sky development or wind shifts. A modest warming scenario above 22°C would require rapid clearing and southerly flow, conditions not supported by current guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions