Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle point to peak temperatures in the mid-80s on August 4 amid persistent high pressure and subsidence warming across the Pacific Northwest. This setup limits marine air intrusion from Puget Sound while promoting clear skies and daytime heating, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by a strengthening El Niño influence. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 84–87 °F underscores residual forecast uncertainty from model spread on exact thermal mixing and any late-day onshore flow. Historical August maxima rarely exceed 85 °F without such ridging, providing context for the elevated market positioning ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日西雅图最高温度？
8月4日西雅图最高温度？
86-87°F 42%
84-85°F 32%
80-81°F 13%
82-83°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
75华氏度或以下
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
42%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
1%
94°F或更高
<1%
86-87°F 42%
84-85°F 32%
80-81°F 13%
82-83°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
75华氏度或以下
$0 交易量
1%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
1%
78-79°F
$6 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
13%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
12%
84-85°F
$3 交易量
32%
86-87°F
$33 交易量
42%
88-89°F
$5 交易量
8%
90-91°F
$8 交易量
3%
92-93°F
$0 交易量
1%
94°F或更高
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle point to peak temperatures in the mid-80s on August 4 amid persistent high pressure and subsidence warming across the Pacific Northwest. This setup limits marine air intrusion from Puget Sound while promoting clear skies and daytime heating, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by a strengthening El Niño influence. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 84–87 °F underscores residual forecast uncertainty from model spread on exact thermal mixing and any late-day onshore flow. Historical August maxima rarely exceed 85 °F without such ridging, providing context for the elevated market positioning ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$55结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle point to peak temperatures in the mid-80s on August 4 amid persistent high pressure and subsidence warming across the Pacific Northwest. This setup limits marine air intrusion from Puget Sound while promoting clear skies and daytime heating, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by a strengthening El Niño influence. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 84–87 °F underscores residual forecast uncertainty from model spread on exact thermal mixing and any late-day onshore flow. Historical August maxima rarely exceed 85 °F without such ridging, providing context for the elevated market positioning ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$55结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Seattle point to peak temperatures in the mid-80s on August 4 amid persistent high pressure and subsidence warming across the Pacific Northwest. This setup limits marine air intrusion from Puget Sound while promoting clear skies and daytime heating, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by a strengthening El Niño influence. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 84–87 °F underscores residual forecast uncertainty from model spread on exact thermal mixing and any late-day onshore flow. Historical August maxima rarely exceed 85 °F without such ridging, providing context for the elevated market positioning ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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